The most dangerous runners between the wickets in cricket history, all in one team

Anindya Dutta17-Oct-2017If you ask any batsman at any level of cricket about their least favourite way of getting out, the answer is likely to be the dreaded run-out. Wouldn’t it be fun, I thought, if we got together a team of specialists in this field? Thus was born the idea of the ‘Run-Out XI’ – Test cricket’s most dangerous XI – a team that is guaranteed to rain down misery and destruction upon themselves and their partners.Setting the Ground Rules for Selection
So how would one go about choosing the ‘best’ fits for such a XI?One approach could be to look only at the players who had the most run-outs in their careers. Another could be to look at players who ran out the most batting partners. Both these approaches would be unfair (assuming not many would want to be part of this squad) to cricketers with longer careers. A better approach then is to look at it in percentage terms. The most obvious qualification criteria for our team in that case would be two-fold – those players for whom the run-out as a mode of dismissal in percentage terms was higher than others, and those who ranked highest by virtue of running out their partners most often. With them, we could then throw in the guiltiest in the first two approaches, i.e. those with the highest absolute number of run-outs, where the victim was themselves or their partner.The XI
To open the batting for this team we have Vijay Merchant, one of India’s leading batsmen through the 1930s and 1940s. With an average of 56.75 opening in Test matches, at a time when India was a new Test-playing nation finding its feet and facing the big boys for most part, Merchant walks into this team on the strength of his batting ability. He cements his opening spot, however, with his penchant for running out his partners, which he managed once every 13 partnerships that he was involved in during his career.

The Run-Out XI

1 Vijay Merchant, 2 Rahul Dravid, 3 Ricky Ponting (vice-captain), 4 Allan Border, 5 Steve Waugh (captain), 6 Joe Solomon, 7 Peter Pollock, 8 Affie Jarvis (wicketkeeper), 9 Stuart MacGill, 10 Rodney Hogg, 11 Iqbal Qasim.

Partnering Merchant is Rahul Dravid. While Dravid batted at No. 3 for most of his career, he did open on 23 occasions, with an average of 42.47 and four hundreds. Besides his calm demeanour and ability to play the anchor role at the top, it is Dravid’s enviable record of run-outs which gets him into the team. While Dravid would never give his wicket away to a bowler without making him work hard for it, his running between the wickets gave the opposing captain that whiff of hope which the edge of his bat did not. Dravid ran himself out 13 times during his Test career. If one thinks that number is not significant given his long career, it is worth considering that the next most successful opponent after ‘Mr Run-Out’ was Shane Warne, who managed to dismiss Dravid eight times. Dravid also succeeded in running his partner out 14 times. Let’s think about this: once every 11 innings when Dravid was out in the middle, one of the two batsmen would depart without dependence on the bowling abilities of the opposition.Soon, but not before our talented opening pair has put on a century stand, the expected misunderstanding between them has occurred. In all probability, Rahul Dravid is walking. Running past him and eager to get to the middle is Ricky Ponting. Ponting is a shoo-in at the No. 3 slot given the almost 10,000 runs he scored at that position at an average of 56.27, with 32 centuries. What makes him particularly attractive to this team, beyond his batting, is his world-leading ability to engineer his own dismissal. Ponting ran himself out on 15 occasions, averaging 52 in those instances.The No. 3 in our XI: Ricky Ponting•Getty ImagesWith Merchant and Ponting at the crease, two men with immense batting talent and ability to score runs at will, this should be an entertaining partnership indeed. The partnership is also likely to end with a bang. Given Ponting’s superiority in the numbers game on this count, the chances are it will be Merchant who departs.Replacing Merchant will be one of the most competitive Australian cricketers and captains of all time, Allan Border. Greg Baum summed him up best: “Allan Border parlayed three shots and a fanatical zeal about not giving away his wicket into the most durable career that cricket in his time had known. At his retirement he had featured in more Tests, more consecutive Tests, more Tests as captain and more catches than any other player – and a batting average of 50 as well.”What makes Border’s selection in this team a cinch is his high ranking in the list of players with the highest number of run-out dismissals in their career, with 12. To add to his appeal for our selection committee, Border also saw his partners run out an incredible 17 times.With two supremely competitive and talented batsmen at the crease, both of whom hated losing their wicket, we are certain to be blessed with a long partnership between Ponting and Border, unless there’s a run-out. The next man in, with a batting average of 51.06 from 168 Test matches, 32 centuries and over 60% of his career runs coming at the No. 5 position, is Steve Waugh. He’s the automatic choice to lead the team, given his 72% win record in Test cricket. What really puts his selection for this team beyond doubt, however, is his incredible record of running out partners. The 23 partners that he watched depart are testimony to the fact that Waugh is a ‘must have’ for this side.Would you fancy a run with Steve Waugh at the other end?•Paul McGregor/Phil Walter – EMPICSAt No. 6 is an interesting selection. Joe Solomon from Guyana played 27 Test matches for West Indies in the 1950s and 60s, averaging 34. But what immortalised Solomon in the annals of Test cricket was not his batting but his dazzling fielding in the first ever tied Test. What convinces our selection committee, though, to add him to the team, is his ability to run himself out. Solomon managed to run himself in 13% of his Test innings.After Waugh manages to run out another partner, in next is an excellent allrounder from South Africa, Peter Pollock. Pollock led South Africa’s bowling attack in 28 Tests, picking up 116 wickets at just above 24 runs apiece, and had a batting average of around 22. Pollock picks himself for this team with a reasonably high proportion of partners run out in his company.Keeping wicket is Affie Jarvis, an Australian wicketkeeper from the last two decades of the 19th century. Jarvis waited for his chances and when he got them, performed extremely creditably keeping to bowlers like Fred Spofforth. Like Pollock, it is again his skill in running out his partners that clinches his spot.At No. 9 is one of the best legspinners of the modern era, Stuart MacGill. His ESPNcricinfo profile says it all: “An old-fashioned operator with a gargantuan legbreak and majestic wrong’un, Stuart MacGill had the best strike-rate and worst luck of any modern spin bowler. His misfortune was to play alongside Shane Warne in an age when Australia, the land of Grimmett and O’Reilly, paradoxically frowned on the concept of fielding two wrist-spinners at once.”Following MacGill will be Peter Pollock’s opening partner with the new ball. Blond, aggressive, blindingly fast and ever so often staring batsmen down with his icy blue eyes, Rodney Hogg was one of Australia’s most aggressive quicks. His quirkiness was exemplified by his insistence that his wife erase a videotape of his soft dismissal in a Test because he didn’t want his son thinking of him as a coward. Needless to say, Hogg’s allure for the selectors of this team is immeasurably enhanced by his six run-outs in 58 innings.The final spot in the XI goes to Iqbal Qasim, one of the foremost left-arm spinners of his age. Operating alongside Abdul Qadir and often in his shadow, Qasim would go about causing destruction with his penetrative turn and flight, almost surprising batsmen with his angled approach between the umpire and the stumps. With a record that parallels Hogg and MacGill’s as far as running himself out is concerned, Qasim fits in well with the other exponents of this rare art.

Which of these Ashes moments was your favourite?

ESPNcricinfo staff10-Jan-2018

The man with the best strike rate against the yorker doesn’t feature in this year’s IPL

S Rajesh13-Apr-2018For all the newer deliveries that have come into the 20-over game, the yorker remains perhaps the most lethal option if bowled with precision. Sample this to understand why: since the start of 2015, AB de Villiers’ strike rate against the yorker is 82.14. Against all other kinds of deliveries, he strikes at 169.ESPNcricinfo LtdOverall, the strike rate off yorkers bowled in all T20s since 2015 is a mere 78.1, and the average: 12.30. The challenge is to get it right, because the repercussions of getting it wrong are quite severe.Among the 50 batsmen who have faced 25 or more yorkers in T20s during this period, only five have strike rates of over 100. Three of them feature in this year’s IPL – Chris Morris, Glenn Maxwell, and Jos Buttler. The leader of the pack, though, is Hashim Amla, who is the only batsman with a strike rate of over 125.

Top strike rates against the yorker (In T20s since Jan 2015; min 25 balls)

Batsmen	Runs	Balls	Dismissals	SR
Hashim Amla	38	30	1	126.67
Glenn Maxwell	40	33	1	121.21
Chris Morris	37	31	0	119.35
Jos Buttler	33	31	0	106.45
Brad Hodge	33	33	2	100.00
MS Dhoni	52	53	1	98.11
Kevin Pietersen	29	30	2	96.67
Kane Williamson	24	25	1	96.00
Shakib Al Hasan	37	39	2	94.87
Rohit Sharma	32	34	2	94.12

Morris and Buttler haven’t been dismissed off these deliveries, which is quite impressive. Rounding off the top ten are MS Dhoni (SR 98.1), Kevin Pietersen (96.67), Kane Williamson (96), Shakib Al Hasan (94.87), Umar Akmal and Rohit Sharma (both 94.12).Now, let’s look at how a few other T20 stars fare against this delivery. None of these numbers are flattering to the batsmen, which means when the delivery comes out right, it’s lethal. When it doesn’t, the bowlers pay a huge price. Nowhere is this more evident than in the stats for Andre Russell: his strike rate against the yorker is a mere 52.63 (30 runs off 57 balls); when the bowler misses and bowls a half-volley or a full toss, Russell’s strike rate zooms to 221.

Batsmen v the yorker (in T20s since Jan 2015)

Batsmen	Runs	Balls	Dismissals	SR
Virat Kohli	44	47	3	93.62
AB de Villiers	23	28	0	82.14
Shane Watson	29	36	1	80.56
Suresh Raina	28	37	3	75.68
Kieron Pollard	60	89	3	67.42
Brendon McCullum	31	47	1	65.96
Chris Lynn	25	38	1	65.79
Chris Gayle	42	67	1	62.69
Andre Russell	32	59	2	54.24
Shikhar Dhawan	9	29	2	31.03

A packed crowd at MA Chidambaram stadium experienced a cocktail of emotions, resulting in a win that was ‘meant to be’

Deivarayan Muthu in Chennai11-Apr-20181:45

‘It was meant to be’ – Billings

The lead-up to Chennai Super Kings’ homecoming after nearly three years was insane. Several local political parties and fringe groups had threatened to disrupt the match against Kolkata Knight Riders to show solidarity with protests calling for the resolution of the Cauvery water dispute between Tamil Nadu and neighboring state Karnataka. By 5pm, a political group staged protests at nearby Wallajah road, which prompted the police to cordon off several routes leading to MA Chidambaram Stadium.The beefed-up security and heavy traffic around the ground caused the match officials to arrive late. Later, the toss was delayed by 13 minutes, but the anxiety turned into delight when MS Dhoni finally walked out. Not a ball bowled yet, but nearly all the stands were filled up.Eight overs into the match, though, panic set in when a group of spectators flung a pair of shoes at the edge of the boundary in the vicinity of Ravindra Jadeja and substitute Faf du Plessis. Du Plessis picked up the shoe, smiled at the crowd and tossed it back amid delirious chants of “CSK! CSK! CSK!” The contrasting emotions summed up the night for the CSK faithful.The fans have experienced a rollercoaster of emotions over the past two years, but they enjoyed a happy, if not a perfect, CSK homecoming with newbie Sam Billings rising above the chaos.Familiar chants of had dominated the early exchanges before Andre Russell hushed the crowd with a barrage of sixes.Russell’s brutal 88 not out off 36 balls launched Knight Riders to 202 for 6. The CSK faithful was twitchy. The opposition had three quality spinners in their ranks and there were question marks over Super Kings’ batting, despite the stunning heist they pulled off in the season opener in Mumbai.Shane Watson, however, gave the crowd hope with three successive boundaries in the first over of the chase. Ambati Rayudu then laid into Piyush Chawla and helped the team rattle off 75 runs in the Powerplay. Both the openers then fell in quick succession, but the fans were in no mood to complain. As soon as Rayudu holed out, the MA Chidambaram stadium raised itself to a deafening roar to welcome back the .Dhoni, though, struggled to time the ball but he had the full support of a packed crowd. Every run drew a cheer. Suresh Raina, another local favourite, was struggling with cramps and ultimately dragged a catch to long-on for 14 off 12 balls. At that point, CSK needed two runs a ball, and it was only the 12th over of the chase.The time was right for a hero to emerge and in came Billings. The England batsman who was once too nervous to ask Dhoni for a selfie was now batting with Dhoni, and having the Chennai crowd grooving to his tunes. His scooped six over fine leg off Russell in the 18th over left everyone in awe, which soon turned into shock when he toe-ended a catch to long-off for 56 off 23 balls.Eventually, CSK needed 17 off the last over with Jadeja struggling to time the ball, much like Dhoni, and Dwayne Bravo new to the crease. Vinay Kumar then sent down a full toss above the waist and Bravo spliced it over fine leg for a six to ease the nerves. The free-hit ball went for two runs while the next was an off-side wide. The next two balls fetched only two runs, leaving Super Kings needing four runs off two balls. Vinay put one in Jadeja’s swinging arc and the batsman finally connected well enough to clear the boundary and secure another thrilling win with one ball to spare.Agony, ecstasy, hurt, panic, passion and pride: a cocktail of emotions all in one night. As Billings put it in the post-match press conference, such a homecoming was “meant to be”.

Having been so forthright about insisting they play hard but fair, Australia have now been shown up as disingenuous, and have horns on their heads where South Africa have halos

Firdose Moonda in Cape Town24-Mar-20183:30

Voges: Australia’s reputation comes in question now

South Africa will be satisfied. Not just with their position on the field – they are 294 runs ahead of Australia with AB de Villiers undefeated on 51 – but with their standing off it. They are back on the moral high ground.Australia have admitted to ball-tampering, the same offence Faf du Plessis was found guilty of when South Africa toured Australia in late 2016, the same offence some sections of the press used to label du Plessis a cheat. Now the shoe is on the other foot.By the time Cameron Bancroft and Steven Smith were ready to front up, South Africa had already left the ground. Their parting comments on day three came from the innocence of Aiden Markram, who described the whirlwind of events in this series as both “crazy” and “cool”.He may not have felt the same way had the reverse swing become more rampant and Australia’s attack got more wickets. For now, it appears that Bancroft’s actions of using sticky yellow tape to try and secure rough granules of sand to try and scuff up the ball did not have much effect. The umpires did not see a need to change the ball. While some South Africa batsmen survived, others thrived to stretch the lead towards 300.It’s crazy that Australia resorted to such a tactic. Crazier because they have been so forthright about insisting they play hard but fair and have now been shown up as disingenuous. Australia do play hard but in this case they were also willing to play unfair and all that will do is make South Africa feel that their chances of beating Australia in a home series for the first time since readmission have never been higher.Australia were panicking as South Africa’s lead grew. They knew that if this match was lost, the series could not be won and they wanted victory at all costs. That much has been obvious since they arrived in South Africa.Australia have tried everything from ambush marketing tactics to have the stump microphones turned down, presumably so they can hurl abuse at South Africa’s players, to admitting they would try to provoke Kagiso Rabada, who was on the cusp of being suspended, into committing another offense. However, they have not been entirely successful. The stump mics are still up and the verbals are still being heard. Rabada has had his ban overturned and though he is playing in the Newlands Test, he is one demerit point away from a ban. But still, South Africa are in control in the third Test, leaving Australia with no choice but to resort to unsavoury tactics that have left horns on their heads and halos over South Africa’s.Remember that it was David Warner who had accused de Villiers of using the wicketkeeping gloves to tamper with the ball when Australia were in South Africa four years ago and was fined 15% of his match fee as a result. Later in the series, Faf du Plessis, who picked up the ball while batting to pass it back to the fielders, said the Australian fielders reacted like a “pack of wild dogs”. And Dale Steyn and Michael Clarke were involved in an incident which Steyn said six months later he had not forgiven Clarke for.Though it was never put on the record, the general understanding is that Clarke had called Steyn a cheat. Then, in 2016, the “Mintgate” saga happened and there has been a build-up of pressure between the two teams in the past few series. Something had to give and from the beginning it has seemed that thing would be Australia.Sympathy was with South Africa from the start, when CCTV footage showed Warner needing to be physically restrained from attacking Quinton de Kock in the stairwell in Durban. But since then, Australia have been victims of a campaign directed at their players’ partners, and Warner’s wife Candice in particular, by sections of the South African crowd. Darren Lehmann has, his own transgressions aside, called the shaming of partners “disgraceful,” and put the ball in South Africa’s court to take action against those who seek to cause trouble in the game. That should still happen but the trouble, in another form, is now Australia.Instead of gloat, South Africa will do well to remember that they have not always been innocent, especially when it comes to ball-tampering. They have three convictions in the last five years – du Plessis when he rubbed the ball on his zipper in the UAE in 2013 and then again in 2016 and Vernon Philander for picking the seam in Sri Lanka in 2014 – but they are winning this fight. To continue winning, they have to stay on the right side of the line and watch as Australia have crossed it.

The lowest total for a visiting side in New Zealand, Pakistan’s losing streak, and other statistical highlights from the third ODI in Dunedin

Shiva Jayaraman13-Jan-2018A new low for a visiting sidePakistan succumbed to their joint third-lowest total in the third ODI against New Zealand in Dunedin. Their lowest ODI total is 43, which they made against West Indies in Cape Town in 1992-93. They barely managed to avoid the lowest ODI total in New Zealand – 73 – by the home team against Sri Lanka in 2006-07. However, their 74 is the lowest total for a visiting side in ODIs in New Zealand.ESPNcricinfo LtdAt 32 for 8, Pakistan seemed like they would set a new record for the lowest-ever ODI total, which belongs to Zimbabwe, who were dismissed for 35 against Sri Lanka. Before today, there were only five other instances in ODI history where teams had lost eight wickets for fewer runs. Pakistan themselves were eight down for 25 against West Indies in Cape Town in 1992-93, which is the lowest score by any team at eight down. Pakistan’s horrid streakThis was Pakistan’s ninth successive loss to New Zealand in ODIs – their joint second-worst streak against any team. They had lost 14 consecutive matches against South Africa between 1995 and 2000. They endured a similar nine-match streak against West Indies in 1992-93. Pakistan’s last win against New Zealand came in Sharjah in December 2014. Their last win against them in New Zealand came in 2011 in Hamilton. Since then, they have lost eight matches in a row to the home team. Pakistan have now lost four successive bilateral ODI series to New Zealand. Their last series win against New Zealand was in 2010-11, when they prevailed in a six-match series 3-2. Boult’s purple patch in ODIsTrent Boult ripped through Pakistan’s top order, reducing them to 2 for 3 in the fourth over of the chase. Boult’s final figures of 5 for 17 are the best by a New Zealand bowler in ODIs against Pakistan. Matt Henry’s 5 for 30, in Abu Dhabi in 2014-15, was the previous best. Boult’s five-for in this match ranks among the most economical five-wicket haul by New Zealand bowlers in ODIs. Only Daniel Vettori’s 5 for 7 against Bangladesh and Shane Bond’s 6 for 19 against India have come at a lower average than Boult’s. Boult has been prolific in his last two ODI series, taking 18 wickets at just 11.44 runs apiece and striking every 16.1 deliveries. He took ten wickets in the previous series, against West Indies, at an average of just 10 runs per wicket.Pakistan’s top-order woesPakistan’s top-seven batsmen have struggled for runs this series, with none barring Fakhar Zaman – who has scores of 82 not out and 2 from two innings – averaging above 30. As many as 13 of the 21 scores by their top seven in this series have been single digits, four of them being ducks. Their collective average of 17.10 is the second worst in any bilateral series with a minimum of 20 innings. Incidentally, their worst such performance had also come in New Zealand, in 1992-93, when their top seven averaged just 16.66.

Using analytics from medicine to compute batsmen’s survival rates

Himanish Ganjoo27-May-2018The batting average is perhaps the most discussed number in cricket. A single figure that seeks to encapsulate the overall ability of a batsman, used by pundits and watercooler debaters alike to make their point, and immortalised by Don Bradman’s 99.94.However, the same ubiquitous metric has been a point of debate among professional and amateur statisticians for its unique definition: it is the average runs per , an algorithm that leaves open the question of not-outs.Not-outs in cricket signify loose ends: open stories that could go anywhere. An unbeaten innings is taken as “incomplete” for the batting average; the runs get added to the numerator, but the denominator remains the same. How to statistically deal with these kinds of innings?In 1993, “A Statistical Analysis of Batting in Cricket” was published in the , where the authors outlined a proposed approach to handling not-outs using survival analysis, a set of tools that are used in medical studies, which provide an answer for “censored” data. In a typical study, the time to the occurrence of a given event (usually the death of a patient) is observed for a large set. A censored observation is when the study ends before the natural death of the patient. To me this was analogous to the runs scored by a batsman till dismissal, with a censored observation being a not-out, since the innings ends before a dismissal can take place.In the realm of survival analysis, I found three related measures that could be applied to batting careers with enlightening results: the survival function, the hazard rate, and the mean lifetime, or what we commonly call life expectancy.***An oft-quoted metric for gauging batsmen is the rate at which they convert fifties to hundreds. Technically, this number is the conditional probability that a batsman scores a hundred given that he has already scored 50 runs. In the same spirit, I could define 20 runs as a “start”, and then ask what the conversion rate of “starts” to hundreds is. You could define your own barrier of a certain score, and find the conversion rate from that barrier to another score.To generalise this paradigm of conversion between any two scores for a batsman, we can look at the survival curve. This is simply plotting the probability that a batsman will survive past a certain score, for all scores. Rather than simply plotting the distribution of scores, we use a tool from survival analysis: the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Without going into the nuts and bolts, this technique takes care of the not-out innings while counting the “survival”, not counting the not-outs as pure dismissals*. Here is the survival curve for Don Bradman:The value of the curve tells us the chance of Bradman surviving past that score, accounting for the unbeaten innings. If the curve dips somewhere, it means that the batsman got out more often around that score. Also, the score at which the curve has a value 0.5 is the median score for that batsman.Moreover, by looking at the curve values at any two scores and dividing them, you can gauge the effective conversion rate between those two scores for that batsman, again, accounting for the uncertainty brought by the not-out innings. An average is a single statistic, a conversion rate is defined between any two points, but this curve splits a batsman’s game open through the prism of his scoring tendencies.Here are the survival curves for four prominent batsmen dominating cricket currently:Steven Smith outshines his peers at very early or very high scores: he is likelier to survive past a significant number of given points in a batting innings compared to the other three. Virat Kohli lags behind the others, but is second only to Smith as he passes a score of around 70 runs, unleashing his penchant for high scores. Joe Root’s much-documented Achilles heel of getting out post 50 is clearly depicted by the steep fall of his graph past that score.Here are the survival curves of the four leading batsmen of the previous generation, all pretty close to each other at most points:***As is well-known to statisticians, the collection of a batsman’s scores follows an exponential distribution. However, we saw in the survival curves how the tendency to get out at some scores leads to fluctuations from a perfectly smooth exponential curve. For instance, Kohli’s curve above flattens out after he reaches about 75 runs.To better visualise these changes, we look at another closely related graph: the hazard rate. Simply put, the hazard rate talks about a batsman’s at a particular score. Another way of looking at it is the following: if a batsman has already reached a given score, what is his chance of getting out at that point? The hazard curve simply takes the survival curve, changes its point of view, and then tracks the differences in the survival as the run values change**.Let’s look at it using our previous example. We know that Root gets out frequently after scoring a fifty; we could see shades of that in his survival curve. Let’s now look at the hazard rates of the “Fab Four”:Voila! We see Root’s curve rising high, confirming the perception of his weakness in the 50-100 zone. The hazard rates mirror the little deviations in the survival curve to better convey a batsman’s propensity for getting out at different times in his innings. The minutiae of the hazards of batting are spread out into a telling Manhattan graph, from which we can infer the likelihood of dismissal at any point in the innings. Is he likely to get out once he goes past 50? Is he weak in the 90s?Studying the above graph: In the first five runs, Smith has an extremely low hazard rate. Well begun is half done, and it reflects in his superior numbers. Kohli has conspicuous peaks at around 20 and 40, but becomes solid as he approaches a fifty. Once he is past 60, Kohli’s innings is devoid of much hazard. Corroborated by his high conversion rate of fifties to tons, he is tough to evict from the crease once he is past that initial barrier. Kane Williamson is prone to getting out very early in the innings, perhaps because he plays in swinging conditions in New ZealandRemember how the survival curves for the previous generation’s batsmen were close to each other? A look at their hazard rates will zoom in and prise the differences open. Let’s look at the hazard rates for Tendulkar, Lara, Ponting and Kallis:The first observation, underlining popular perception, is that Tendulkar was fairly likely to get dismissed in the 90s. He had all those 90s because he played a lot of innings, but once he got to 90, he was also more likely to get out than Kallis or Ponting. Lara was the most susceptible in terms of the relative chance of getting out just before a ton. Like his successor in the Australian batting pantheon, Ponting rarely got out after just arriving at the crease.***With all the talk of the chance of survival, it makes sense to ask what the expected lifetime of an object under observation is. The answer lies in a commonly known number: life expectancy. The oft-quoted figure of 80 years or so is the life expectancy at birth. This concept can be extended to any age. At a given age, the life expectancy is the expected number of years left to live, given that an individual has already survived to that age.This has an exact cricketing analogue: if a batsman has survived to a given score, what is the expected score he might make before getting out? If I could compute the “life expectancy” for a batsman at a given score, I could predict the expected score, were that innings to be allowed to reach its natural conclusion: a dismissal.The life expectancy can be straightforwardly obtained from the survival curve***. In cricketing terms, it gives us the expected extra runs to be scored if a batsman is not out at a given score. Here are the values for the “Fab Four”:Smith and Kohli have established themselves as high scorers in Tests recently, and the graph shows that clearly. Three curves start out close together, but Kohli then joins Smith: they are expected to construct big innings if you let them pass 40. At the 30-run mark, one expects both of them to score close to a hundred, on average. Kohli’s career has towering scores punctuated by lean spells, and one can see that: once he goes past 45, his expected returns are higher than those of the other three, a statistical confirmation of high-scoring impact. On the other hand, Root dips after fifty, but is expected to score high if he crosses that barrier.Let’s look at the same for the older batsmen. The graph below brings forth Lara’s capacity for mammoth innings:The survival curve and the life expectancy come together to deliver crucial information: how often does a batsman go past a score, and how high does he go if he goes past it?***To cap this analysis off, let’s go back to the paper mentioned at the start of this article and indulge in an academic exercise that formed the primary motivation for this line of thought. The original issue handled in the paper was to furnish an adjusted average for each batsman, accounting for not-outs. The method followed uses the life expectancy curves for each batsman.We take all the unbeaten scores in a batsman’s career, and add to them the life expectancy value at that score. Let’s remind ourselves what this means. The life expectancy at a score tells you the to be scored from that point in the innings. So, if a batsman is left unbeaten at a certain score, adding the life expectancy at that value would project the innings to a “natural” conclusion, i.e. were his innings to progress normally, when would he get out, on average?With this set of modified scores, we now simply take an arithmetic mean to calculate the “Adjusted Average”. Here is the table of the top 15 batsmen sorted by adjusted averages, with the filter being 4000 Test runs.

Top 15 Test batsmen ranked by adjusted average (Min 4000 runs)

Player Average Adjusted Ave Rank by Ave Rank By Adj Ave Change in RankDG Bradman 99.94 98.47 1 1 0SPD Smith 61.38 60.88 2 2 0WR Hammond 58.46 59.65 6 3 +3H Sutcliffe 60.73 59.25 3 4 +1ED Weekes 58.62 58.55 5 5 0GS Sobers 57.78 58.46 7 6 -1KC Sangakkara 57.41 57.79 8 7 +1KF Barrington 58.67 57.30 4 8 -4L Hutton 56.67 56.56 10 9 +1JB Hobbs 56.95 56.38 9 10 -1JH Kallis 55.37 54.63 11 11 0V Kohli 53.40 54.22 14 12 +2GS Chappell 53.86 53.69 12 13 -1SR Tendulkar 53.79 53.60 13 14 -1Javed Miandad 52.57 53.52 17 15 +2The top rankers mostly stay the same, on account of being top-order batsmen whose averages have little to do with not-outs. The rise in average for Wally Hammond, Garry Sobers, Kumar Sangakkara, Virat Kohli and Javed Miandad speaks of their penchant for big innings: their life expectancies are very high at their unbeaten scores.To end: who are the biggest gainers under our new method?

Biggest gainers when considering adjusted average (Min 4000 Test runs)

Name Average Adjusted Ave Rank by Av Rank By Adj Av Change in RankVVS Laxman 45.97 47.32 58 48 +10MJ Clarke 49.11 50.46 37 29 +8LRPL Taylor 47.83 49.47 45 38 +7DJ Cullinan 44.21 44.76 73 66 +7MA Taylor 43.50 43.86 80 73 +7Zaheer Abbas 44.80 45.54 65 60 +5IR Bell 42.69 43.19 85 80 +5CH Gayle 42.19 42.62 91 86 +5G Kirsten 45.27 45.82 61 57 +4HP Tillakaratne 42.88 43.50 83 79 +4G Gambhir 41.96 42.04 94 90 +4MP Vaughan 41.44 41.86 98 94 +4WR Hammond 58.46 59.65 6 3 +3Younis Khan 52.06 52.74 20 17 +3VVS Laxman, with his many unbeaten knocks batting with the tail, gains ten ranks. His adjusted average is much higher than his normal average, which means his not-out innings are on track to be high scores if uninterrupted.***Singular statistics might be compact, but a game as deep as cricket calls for deeper inspection. We know that getting out is an occupational hazard of batting. This analysis sheds light upon these hazards lurk. After all, your time at the crease is a metaphor for life. It only makes sense to analyse survival.________________________________________________________________________________________________________*The exact calculation of the Kaplan-Meier curve takes place through the construction of life tables, which list the number of innings ongoing, dismissed, and “at risk” at a given score. An estimator for the survival function is then computed by multiplying the proportions of “at risk” innings at each score successively.**The hazard rate is the logarithmic derivative of the survival curve. Effectively, it measures the differences in the survival between successive run values in the logarithmic space. Therefore, it is the relative change in survival.***The life expectancy at any run value is the integral of the survival curve from that value, divided by the survival function at that value. Player numbers as of May 1, 2018.

And what’s the record for most runs between dismissals in ODIs?

Steven Lynch07-Aug-2018In the recent T20 international in St Kitts, both Bangladesh openers were out first ball. How rare is this across all formats? asked Alan Alexander from the United States

That instance in Basseterre, with Bangladesh’s openers Tamim Iqbal and Soumya Sarkar both falling first ball to the West Indian offspinner Ashley Nurse, was a first for T20Is. It’s happened twice in ODIs: to Piet Rinke and Terry Duffin for Zimbabwe against West Indies in Georgetown in 2006 (Fidel Edwards dismissed them both), and to Lahiru Thirimanne and Tillakaratne Dilshan of Sri Lanka against Afghanistan in Dunedin during the 2015 World Cup. And it’s happened six times in Tests now, most recently to Tom Latham and Martin Guptill of New Zealand during Dale Steyn’s first over for South Africa in Centurion in August 2016. For the full list, click here.Was Virat Kohli’s 149 at Edgbaston the highest score by an Indian captain in England? asked Savo Ceprnich from South Africa

Virat Kohli’s counter-punching 149 in the first Test at Edgbaston was the fifth century by an Indian captain in England. The only higher score remains – for the time being at least! – Mohammad Azharuddin’s 179 at Old Trafford in 1990.Kohli beat by Mansur Ali Khan Pataudi’s 148 at Headingley in 1967. The other captain-centurions were Sourav Ganguly, with 128 at Headingley in 2002, and Azharuddin again, with a memorable 121 at Lord’s in 1990, in the match in which England’s captain, Graham Gooch, made 333 and 123.What’s the highest partnership in the fourth innings of a Test? And what’s the highest individual score? asked Matt Gregory from England

The highest partnership in the fourth innings of any Test remains 301, by Arthur Morris and Don Bradman, for the second wicket as Australia chased down 404 to win the fourth Test of the 1948 Ashes series at Headingley. Next comes an unbroken second-wicket partnership of 287 between Gordon Greenidge and Larry Gomes as West Indies made similarly light work of a final-day target of 342 to beat England at Lord’s in 1984. There have been 14 other partnerships of 200 or more in the fourth innings of a Test.In 1999, Lance Klusener made 400 runs in ten innings between dismissals•Getty ImagesThe highest individual score in the fourth innings is George Headley’s 223 for West Indies against England in Kingston. That came under threat from Nathan Astle, with 222 for New Zealand against England in Christchurch in 2001-02, and Sunil Gavaskar, with 221 for India against England at The Oval in 1979. Bill Edrich (219 in the Timeless Test in Durban in 1938-39) and Gordon Greenidge (214 not out in the1984 match mentioned above) have also scored fourth-innings double-centuries.Sachin Tendulkar made the most runs in all in the fourth innings of Tests – 1625, just 14 ahead of Graeme Smith – while Younis Khan hit five centuries, one more than Smith, Gavaskar, Ricky Ponting and Ramnaresh Sarwan.Fakhar Zaman went 455 runs between dismissals in the recent ODI series in Zimbabwe. Was this a record? asked Iftikhar Mohammad from Pakistan

Fakhar Zaman reeled off scores of 117 not out, 43 not out, 210 not out and 85 (caught behind) in Pakistan’s recent whitewash of Zimbabwe in Bulawayo. He beat the previous record of 405 runs between dismissals, set in 2002-03 by another Pakistani, Mohammad Yousuf, also against Zimbabwe: he had successive innings of 141 not out, 76 not out, 100 not out and 88. Next on the list comes a remarkable sequence by South Africa’s Lance Klusener during 1999. After falling for a duck against New Zealand in February, he scored 400 runs without being dismissed, beginning with 103, 35, 13 and 35 in New Zealand. “Zulu” then started the 1999 World Cup in England with 12 not out against India, 52 not out against Sri Lanka, 48 not out against England, 52 not out against Zimbabwe and 46 not out against Pakistan, before finally being bowled for 4 against New Zealand.Sri Lanka’s stand-in captain Suranga Lakmal has won his first three Tests in charge. Is he the first Sri Lankan to do this? asked Tushar Mukherjee from the United States

My first thought was that Suranga Lakmal probably was the first Sri Lankan to win his first three Tests as captain – he has overseen victories over West Indies in Bridgetown, and South Africa in Galle and in Colombo – but actually Lakmal’s team-mate Rangana Herath also won his first three Tests in charge, two against Zimbabwe and one against Bangladesh in 2016-17, before a defeat by Bangladesh in Colombo (and another loss to India in Galle) spoiled his 100% record.In all, 17 captains have started by winning their first three Tests; only seven of them made it four, and just Warwick Armstrong of Australia and England’s Percy Chapman won their first five. Armstrong’s run, which was all against England in 1920-21 and 1921, was stopped by English rain after eight wins, but later in the 1920s, Chapman actually won his first nine Tests in charge. By contrast, Bangladesh’s Khaled Mashud uniquely lost his first ten Tests in charge (he finished with 12 defeats out of 12), while MJK Smith of England drew nine of his first ten (but won the other one).Use our feedback form or the Ask Steven Facebook page to ask your stats and trivia questions

He will not be contemplating staying on beyond next year but, despite occasional criticisms of his methods, Trevor Bayliss has once again created a winning environment for the Test team

George Dobell in Kandy19-Nov-2018It tells you much about the buoyant mood in English cricket at present that an England coach has had to field questions from journalists asking if he might consider staying on in the role.Not so long ago – early 2015, in the Caribbean – the first question in the first press conference of a tour asked a player (Gary Ballance) whether the coach (Peter Moores) was “a dead man walking”. Not long before that – the Ashes tour of 2013-14 – Andy Flower spent several months insisting that media reports were wrong and he had no intention of quitting at the end of the series. Then he quit at the end of the series.Yet in the aftermath of England’s success in Pallekele, there was Trevor Bayliss being asked if he might consider extending his contract as head coach. It expires in September 2019, after the conclusion of England’s home season.He won’t, of course. He’s said it before and, if England win the World Cup or the Ashes (or even both), he will no doubt be required to say it again.”I’m not tempted to stay on,” Bayliss said. “I’ve always been of the opinion – even before I started the England job – that four to five years is a good life for a coach with one team. Hopefully you take it forward and then it’s up to a new voice, maybe someone of a different direction, to take the team forward. I’ve always been of that opinion and that’s not going to change.”The fact that the question was asked is more revealing than the answer, though. Only a few months ago, some were suggesting that the England coaching role should be split, with Bayliss focusing on the white-ball formats and someone else taking charge of the Test team. Now England have beaten India, at home, and completed their first win in Asia since 2012 and their first in Sri Lanka since 2001. They are favourites for the World Cup, too. Bayliss’ stock – in the UK markets, at least – is at an all-time high.While there is, no doubt, an element of fickleness about such fluctuations – had England’s tenth-wicket stands not added 101 in Pallekele; had Ben Stokes not pulled off a brilliant run-out; had Keaton Jennings not parried a catch to Ben Foakes, this series, against a Sri Lanka side in transition, could easily be 1-1- there is also an element of justification. For Bayliss and co – and it would be unfair not to recognise the role of Joe Root, Paul Farbrace and many others in the England set-up – have created an environment in which England are playing some wonderfully entertaining, joyful and increasingly successful cricket.England head coach Trevor Bayliss during a practice session•Getty ImagesAnd, after a few false starts, it does seem a few things are beginning to fall into place. Foakes, for example, is clearly a fine player with a golden future. Rory Burns has looked every inch the Test opener England have required for months and Jennings has contributed heavily in both Tests. Bayliss himself reckons England have probably nailed down “two or three” positions they have been trying to fill. And they’ve started to hold their catches.”There’s no secret in the fact we’ve been looking for two or three, maybe even four, positions to get nailed down over the last few years,” Bayliss said. “I think on this particular tour we’ve probably seen two or three of those positions getting nailed down.”I think the job that Burns and Foakes have done in the two Tests they’ve been here – it looks like they’re playing their 30th or 40th Tests. Their calmness has been outstanding.”Keaton Jennings and Foakes, down in Galle, played fantastically positive innings. They played in their fashion in a positive manner. It was made partly easier because of the runs we had on the board and what was happening at the other end. You’ve got guys that can put pressure on, you’ve got guys that can bat around them as well. To me that’s a perfect combination of batters.”We’ve now got those two plus Burns in the team. We’ve got three guys that probably haven’t quite got the shots of some of the other guys in the team and to me that’s a pretty good combination.”They say catches win matches. Well, this match goes a long way towards proving that. We haven’t worked any more or less on it. Maybe it’s just the volume of catches over a period of time that is starting to pay dividends. Certainly there were some outstanding catches.”Bayliss also thinks Root is just at the start of his journey as a captain. But despite seeing a batting order come together, despite seeing the catches start to stick in the field, despite seeing the spinners hold their nerve under pressure and leading England to victory, there will be no second thoughts from Bayliss. He isn’t interested in taking this new improved England back for another crack at India. He’ll be happy to watch on TV.

“Has he accepted his way back is as a specialist batsman? You’d have to ask him but I think he wants to do as well as he possibly can and cement a spot in the team”Trevor Bayliss on Jonny Bairstow losing the gloves

“I still think Joe will improve even more from where he’s at,” Bayliss said. “Like any young captain, he’d probably like to do a few things differently. But the more you have these types of wins in these conditions that just gives the captain confidence. And it gives the players confidence in the captain. He’ll just get better and better.”We lost in India because, while he were able to score 400, they were able to make 600. We batted reasonably well.”In this Test, our spinners didn’t quite hit their proper lengths in the first innings. But there’s a lot of pressure in having to bowl a team to a win on a fifth-day turning wicket in the subcontinent and I thought the way they responded in the second session was fantastic. Hopefully that’s a learning curve for those guys. I look forward to watching the next series in India on TV.”It reflects well on Bayliss (as well as the individual players, of course), too, that England have left out some ‘big name’ players in this trip and it has not caused disruption in the dressing room. So united is the squad, so committed to the shared goals, that they have been able to manage personal disappointments in the knowledge that decisions were made in the best interest of the group. Bayliss and his staff deserve credit for instilling that dynamic.”One of the great things that hasn’t been spoken about over the last two games is Stuart Broad and Jonny Bairstow missing out,” Bayliss said. “But the way they’ve taken it has been absolutely fantastic. It makes the feeling around the squad so much better. They are very much part of a squad and they realise that. They realise we’re picking what we think is the best team to win each match and they’ve taken that on the chin. It’s been great.”Has Bairstow accepted his way back is as a specialist batsman? He’s certainly done that at the moment. You’d have to ask him but I think he wants to do as well as he possibly can and cement a spot in the team as a batter.”But perhaps the most obvious manifestation of Bayliss’ influence has come in the way England have batted on this tour. Instead of the cagey batting we have tended to see from England teams in Asia in the past, England have looked to hit bowlers off lengths and force changes in the field with their aggressive strokeplay. It is, at times, high risk. But it is also entertaining and, increasingly of late, successful.Joe Root leads the lap of honour after England’s series win•Getty Images”There’s just a good feel,” he said. “And when there’s a good feel around the team, the environment to learn and get better is enhanced. It’s a point we’ve been trying to get to and the two or three new guys in the team appear to have fitted into that system very effectively. What they’ve shown in a couple of matches is a positive sign for the future. But let’s not go overboard. I’m sure we can get some scented candles out there to make things better.”That last sentence – delivered with a big smile – is a reference to criticism of Bayliss made on these pages not so long ago. The writer suggested that Bayliss, with his hands-off approach, his acceptance that he isn’t really a technical coach and an admission that his knowledge of county cricket (through no fault of his own; his schedule is remorseless) limits his role in selection meetings, was of modest use in his job. “If he’s just creating a relaxed environment, he could be replaced by a couple of scented candles, a yucca plant and a CD of ambient whale noises.”But although that criticism is still – up to a point – valid, it might also fail to recognise the importance of creating the right environment. For one of Bayliss’ strengths is that he reduces pressure on his players, simplifies what can sometimes appear a hideously complicated game and encourages his teams to enjoy their cricket and the incredible journey their lives are on while they play the game at international level. And those are not inconsiderable qualities.But, even as he said it, he conceded that he had not been involved in one of the key tactical decisions that defined the Pallekele victory. He was as surprised as anyone how much his players swept.”It was a surprise,” Bayliss said. “No one sat down and said ‘look, we’ve got to sweep or play straight’. If you played across the line years ago you’d have got clip behind the ear. It just seemed that, on this wicket, both sides decided the sweep shot was the shot to go to and that it was actually easier than the straight bat. We’ve had criticism at times for the way we’ve approached the game but one thing that never gets spoken about is the skill of these guys to go out and play in that fashion and score 600-plus on that type of wicket. That was fantastic.”And that’s Trevor Bayliss for you. He’s hands off, relaxed, honest and even-tempered. He doesn’t try to take credit for the players’ success and his greatest attribute just might be what he doesn’t do: fuss or spread anxiety or discontent in the dressing room. Somewhere in there, he’s helped create a pretty decent team in all formats. England may well miss him when he’s gone. Well, who doesn’t like a scented candle?

The climax to English cricket’s T20 competition is like no other day in the calendar – and for that there is much to admire

Paul Edwards16-Sep-2018It is easy for a coach to say he wants his team to enjoy their cricket. So easy, in fact, that almost all of them do so. It is harder, though, for him to mean it and harder still for professional cricketers to take him at his word. It was even tougher, maybe, on Saturday evening had the finalists in this year’s Vitality Blast recalled that amid all the bobbery surrounding T20 Finals Day, the eventual winners collected £280,000, the runners-up £135,000. Yet the final was contested by two teams whose enjoyment of their cricket was evident in everything they did.We have to be careful here. When the Sussex coach, Jason Gillespie, tells his players to enjoy their cricket, he is not advocating cheery indifference to whatever happens, nor, we can bet, does he greet sheer sloppiness with a moon-faced smile. It would be interesting to know his reaction to Phil Salt’s dozy run-out in the final against Worcestershire. Yet when Luke Wright was looking forward to the climax of this year’s Blast on Friday afternoon, his words about Salt, in particular, are worth recalling.”With Phil Salt you just let him go,” he said. “He could get out first ball or he could end up smacking a hundred tomorrow. He’s a matchwinner…That chilled fun side of it exactly how I want to play my cricket and I think when people are happy they seem to play better. In T20 you have to risk a lot and be brave enough to go out and have a go. If Salty wants to go and hit the first ball for six tomorrow but he gets out doing it, that’s just the way it is. We’ll pat him on the back and we’ll go again.”The serious point here – one that professional coaches would develop usefully – is that if you enjoy playing your sport, you are actually giving yourself a better chance of succeeding. Such an approach may be contrasted with the rather grim axiom that you will enjoy a game if you win it. That is an approach often espoused in some northern counties and it places the cart before the horse. It appeared present in Lancashire’s run-chase against Worcestershire in the semi-final. The batsmen in that suddenly distant morning seemed haunted by the possibility of failure; there was little evidence of the natural ability so many of them possessed. And so they lost.

You did not need to be in Australia last winter to understand that Moeen Ali was not enjoying his cricket; yet the skipper’s joy was evident in almost every aspect of his play on Finals’ Day…The revival in Moeen’s form has been one of the themes of the summer

That analysis gives nothing like sufficient credit to Worcestershire’s bowlers, of course, or to Ben Cox’s fearless assault on Toby Lester’s final over. Yet Cox’s approach was fearless because he did not fear anything. He was playing a game. And after mastering the skills required to flummox batsmen, Pat “knuckle-ball” Brown enjoyed showing them off. Such approaches come from the top. You did not need to be in Australia last winter to understand that Moeen Ali was not enjoying his cricket; yet the skipper’s joy was evident in almost every aspect of his play on Finals’ Day as he made 41 in each innings and took five wickets for 46 runs in eight overs. The revival in Moeen’s form has been one of the themes of the summer.Brazen enjoyment is particularly fitting on this day at Edgbaston. The whole occasion is preposterous. It is also tiring, faintly deranged and further over the top than . Yet it has become part of the cricket season for thousands of people, many of whom also appreciate the four-day stuff. Of course the Kiss Cam is embarrassing; of course the Scatter Blast sounds like a method of dispersing an unruly mob. But those who are not prepared to enter into the spirit of the thing would be better not attending. In a way, that includes the cricketers, too. Their seasons are judged in the main by their performances in the County Championship but their summers would be a lesser thing without the possibility of appearing in this Birmingham burlesque with its floodlights, its congregational choruses, its fancy dress and even its mascot race.Yet this shortest of cricket’s formats has also become the most analysed. Within moments of the final being completed people were noting its statistical oddities and some of them were very odd indeed. Others were more obvious. For example, Sussex became the first team from the South Group to reach the final since Surrey in 2013 but could not become the first to break the North’s dominance of the Blast since Hampshire in 2012. Worcestershire became only the second team in the last eight finals to win the trophy when batting second.Ben Cox admires his work•Getty ImagesMere writers, meanwhile, are left with their images: the Worcestershire players rushing out to greet Cox at the moment of victory; Moeen hanging back but still accidentally copping one on the nose from an overjoyed Daryl Mitchell, who, at the age of 33, had won his first major trophy; the sight of the Worcestershire players offering a public rendition of their victory song in front of their supporters.And, yes, Kevin Sharp, who a year ago could not have dreamed he would be doing his present job. Then he was an attendant lord, one that could swell a team photograph, start a net or two. Now he is the coach of one of the season’s three major trophy winners. And he will, no doubt, have appreciated the words of, Alec Stewart, his counterpart at Surrey, who as his own players celebrated the title, praised Worcestershire’s cricket and took time out on Thursday evening to say they were doing things the right way by bringing on their own young players and giving them the chance to enjoy their sport.Let us return to another fine coach and to a captain who managed to transcend the self-policed optimism of last Friday afternoon. “It’s easy to put too much pressure on the day and I’ve told the lads to enjoy it,” said Wright. “Jason Gillespie has helped us to do that and I think that’s why we’ve had so much success. The quarter-final was the most relaxed game I’ve ever played in really. Dizzy was so chilled in the build-up and he’s the same now.””Yeah, but you lost,” the critics will smirk. They will have missed the point. Again.